English
FOST’s long-term goal is to become a global leading thinktank about China’s macroeconomy and economic policies.
Beijing FOST Economic Consulting Company Limited (FOST) was founded by Dr. Jianlin Feng. Jianlin has worked for the National Development and Reform Commission of China (NDRC), the most important economic policy-making organ of the State Council.
As a third-party institute devoted to China’s economic policy research, FOST is known for its insightful analysis and accurate forecast of China’s macroeconomy and policies. FOST provides services to funds, banks, insurance companies, asset managing institutes, and large enterprises both home and abroad. The Development Research Center of the State Council，PBoC，MoF，the Office of the Central Committee on Financial and Economic Affairs, and other government agencies also pay close attention to FOST reports.
FOST’s long-term goal is to become a global leading thinktank about China’s macroeconomy and economic policies.
A firm of research
FOST believes that only with insightful, original and creative research can FOST provide clients with values and lead the market.
To maintain the highest quality of the products, FOST always collects data and information from ministries and other authoritative sources directly, FOST has its own databases of macroeconomic data and economic policies.
FOST studies economic data according to the logic thinking of ministries of the State Council, analyzes and forecasts economic policies according to the viewpoints of ministries. It is proved that FOST’s forecasts and judgments are highly forward-looking and accurate. These forecasts and judgments help readers to maximize their business interests, supporting FOST to develop..
Products and Services
FOST publishes six research periodicals, monitoring and analyzing Chinese macro-economy and policies, and international relation multi-dimensionally.
FOST Financial Daily, in Chinese, publishes in the morning of every working day, covering financial news and policy information with professional analysis on key events.
FOST Financial Weekly, in Chinese, recalls national and international financial news during the week, analyzes key events comprehensively.
FOST China Research, in Chinese, 3-4 issues per month, makes focused study on key issues of Chinese and international economy.
FOST Event Watch, in Chinese, 3-4 issues per month, traces hot topics such as important meetings and events, regional economy and policies, and global economy.
FOST Reform Review, in Chinese, semimonthly, covers key reform policies of the central and local governments.
FOST Global Briefing, in Chinese, publishes every weekend, covers events in majors countries and of international relations, helping clients track the international political environment changes.
Meanwhile, FOST provides telephone conference, seminar, roadshow， and custom research services.
Attention of Ministries and Media
June 2011, Caixin Online reported FOST viewpoints on local government debt.
November 2011, Bloomberg and The Echoes interviewed FOST.
February 13, 2012, PBoC contacted FOST and asked for FOST research report on the supervision on capital and finance account.
April 28, 2012, head of the Department of Macroeconomy of the Development Research Center of the State Council visited FOST and purchased FOST report.
May 15, 2013, PBoC official invited FOST economist to attend economic policies workshop.
February 25, 2014, People.cn invited FOST to write articles about macro and policies.
Nov. 20, 2015, the Department of Treasury of MoF asked for FOST research reports.
Nov.11, 2016, media reported FOST analysis on the coming central economic work conference.
April 12, 2017, media reported FOST analysis on Xiong’an New Area.
April 15, 2018, official from Ministry of Finance visited FOST.
June 21, 2018, October 9, 2018, September 18, 2019, the Office of the Central Finance Committee invited FOST chief economist to attend their meeting on economic situation and policies.
March 17, 2020, the Monetary Policy Department of PBOC called FOST and asked for suggestions on the marketization reform of deposit interest rate.
March 31, 2020, official from the Office of the Central Finance Committee asked FOST for policy suggestions on stabilizing employment.
November 4, 2020, official from the Ministry of Finance asked FOST for policy suggestions to reduce the burden on enterprises.
April 19, 2021，official from the Office of the Central Finance Committee asked FOST about the impact of US monetary policies on the world economy and financial markets.
September 17, 2021，FOST made proposals on stabilizing economy to the Office of the Central Finance Committee.
March 17, 2022, Reuters interviewed FOST about meeting of Financial commission of the State Council.
Aug. 29, 2022, China Daily interviewed FOST on the macroeconomic situation and policies.
Jan. 9, 2023, China Daily interviewed FOST on the local NPC and CPPCC sessions.
Mar. 7, 2023, Reuters interviewed FOST on the reform of the financial regulatory system.
July 24, 2023, China Daily interviewed FOST on the promotion of private investment.
Sep. 1, 2023, Ta Kung Pao interviewed FOST on the exchange rate of RMB.
Nov. 1, 2023, Jiemian News interviewed FOST on the Central Financial Work Conference.
Nov. 8, 2023, China Daily interviewed FOST on the macroeconomic situation.
Dec. 13, 2023, Ta Kung Pao interviewed FOST on the Central Economic Work Conference.
Jan. 24, 2024, China Daily interviewed FOST on China's economic situation in 2024.
Mar. 5, 2024, Reuters interviewed FOST on the government work report.
Sept. 24, 2024, Sohu Finance invited FOST researchers to discuss real estate market situation.
Dec. 10, 2024, China Daily interviewed FOST on monetary policy.
Jan. 2, 2025, China Daily interviewed FOST on the issue of stock market stabilization funds.
Mar. 5, 2025, Jiemian News interviewed FOST regarding the government work report.
Apr. 8, 2025, China Daily interviewed FOST on how to stabilize the stock market.
May 26, 2025, The Observer Network interviewed FOST regarding technology finance.
Jun. 16, 2025, Reuters interviewed FOST regarding the economic data for May.
Jul. 30, 2025, Reuters and Jiemian News interviewed FOST regarding the Politburo meeting.
FOST Forecasts and Verifications
| Date | FOST View | Outcome |
| 2011/4/17 | The next benchmark interest rate adjustment is likely to be in July or later | On July 7, the central bank raised benchmark interest rates |
| 2012/5/13 | The central bank should cut rates; June 9 and July 9 are sensitive windows | On June 8 and July 6, the central bank cut rates twice |
| 2013/5/17 | The central bank appears to be guiding market interest rates moderately higher | The "liquidity crunch" occurred from late May to mid-June |
| 2014/3/23 | The RMB may gradually enter a depreciation channel | 2014–2016: RMB gradually depreciated |
| 2015/4/30 | Monetary policy will cut interest rates when the time is right | On May 11, the central bank cut rates by 25 bps |
| 2015/8/4 | The central bank is preparing to widen the RMB trading band | On August 11, the central bank announced reform of the RMB central parity formation mechanism, allowing more market-driven fluctuation |
| 2015/9/21 | Authorities may be considering eventually lifting the ceiling on deposit rates | On October 23, the central bank removed the deposit rate ceiling |
| 2016/1/28 | The central bank's regular open market operations policy will become the new normal | On February 18, the central bank announced it would conduct open market operations every business day |
| 2016/6/15 | The UK may vote to leave the EU | On June 23, the UK voted for Brexit |
| 2016/12/11 | The economy is bottoming out and stabilising; Q1 GDP next year is expected to accelerate | Q1 2017 GDP grew 6.9%, accelerating |
| 2017/1/19 | A China–US trade war is unavoidable; bilateral relations may face considerable difficulties in coming years | In 2018, the US launched a trade war against China |
| 2017/7/20 | The 19th Party Congress is unlikely to change the reform framework and will continue to follow the spirit of the Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee | The 19th Party Congress largely continued the reform agenda set by the Third Plenum |
| 2018/6/19 | To boost exports, the strong exchange rate policy may be adjusted | From late June to October, the exchange rate fell from 6.4 to 6.97 |
| 2018/9/20 | The central bank may cut RRR in October to replace MLF | On October 7, the central bank announced a RRR cut on October 15 to replace MLF |
| 2018/11/8 | VAT rates may be cut by 1–2 percentage points next year | In 2019, VAT rates were cut by 2 percentage points |
| 2018/11/30 | Early 2019 is a good window for RRR cuts | In January 2019, the central bank cut RRR by 1 percentage point in two steps |
| 2019/5/28 | The central bank will promote LPR marketisation and application | In August 2019, the central bank launched LPR reform |
| 2019/9/24 | A China–US trade deal may be reached in the next 2–3 months | In January 2020, China and the US reached a Phase One trade agreement |
| 2020/2/28 | Authorities are considering issuing special treasury bonds | In May, authorities deployed issuance of 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic treasury bonds |
| 2020/4/20 | The Politburo meeting may have lowered the GDP growth target | In May, the Government Work Report did not set an annual GDP target |
| 2020/9/27 | Authorities may consider extending the direct fiscal fund allocation mechanism to next year | On October 21, the State Council executive meeting called for studying a regular direct fiscal fund allocation mechanism |
| 2020/11/25 | Authorities will soon introduce substantive measures to regulate new business models | On December 18, the Central Economic Work Conference called for "strengthening anti-monopoly and preventing disorderly expansion of capital" |
| 2021/2/3 | The Government Work Report is expected to prioritise carbon peaking | On March 5, the Government Work Report addressed the dual carbon goals, with significantly stronger related efforts |
| 2021/8/20 | Authorities will prevent house prices from falling too fast | In late September, the central bank convened a meeting requiring reasonable real estate financing, followed by broad easing of property policies by central and local governments |
| 2021/9/17 | Authorities will timely correct campaign-style carbon reduction and dual-control policies | In late September, authorities shifted to securing electricity supply, and dual-control policies began to loosen significantly |
| 2021/12/3 | Authorities may step in to prevent the RMB from becoming too strong | On December 9, the central bank announced an increase in the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio |
| 2022/2/17 | This year's GDP target is expected to be "around 5.5%" | On March 5, the Government Work Report set GDP growth target at "around 5.5%" |
| 2022/3/27 | Over the next 2–3 years, supporting factors for the property market (policy shifts, urbanisation, pro-birth policies) may be disproven one by one; even if the market sees periodic recoveries, sustainability will be weak | In 2023 and 2024, the property market underwent significant adjustment |
| 2022/4/25 | The central bank urgently needs to establish a deposit rate adjustment framework to escape the awkward situation of being able only to move rates in one direction | On May 10, the central bank's monetary policy report disclosed that it had guided the interest rate self-discipline mechanism to establish a market-oriented deposit rate adjustment mechanism |
| 2022/5/10 | The urbanisation of the permanent population may continue to slow in the future | In February 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that the urbanisation rate rose by 0.5 percentage points in 2022, 0.3 percentage points slower than in 2021 |
| 2022/5/29 | The RMB still faces depreciation pressure; it is expected to weaken with fluctuations, break 7 smoothly, with upside near 7.2 | The RMB weakened with fluctuations, reaching 7.26 on 2022-11-04, then strengthened with fluctuations |
| 2022/7/17 | US inflation is peaking | In the second half of 2022, US CPI increases began to gradually moderate |
| 2022/8/10 | The economic reform goals and framework are expected to remain unchanged during the 20th Party Congress; political reforms will further strengthen Party leadership | Authorities have consistently emphasised adhering to the reform framework of the Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee |
| 2022/11/16 | Efforts to revitalise existing assets are expected to gradually expand in the coming years, supporting new project launches and fiscal support for the economy | In 2023, some localities focused on revitalising existing assets to repay debt |
| 2022/12/24 | The fiscal deficit ratio is expected to rise to 3–3.2% in 2023 | On March 5, 2023, the budget report proposed a deficit ratio of 3% |
| 2023/1/17 | Q1 GDP growth is expected to return to 4–5% | |
| 2023/3/15 | Q1 GDP growth is expected at 4.2–4.6% | On April 18, the National Bureau of Statistics reported Q1 GDP growth of 4.5% |
| 2023/3/30 | Authorities will continue to support EVs to accelerate replacing fuel vehicles; the auto price war will persist | The auto price war has continued |
| 2023/6/9 | June CPI is expected to be near 0% year-on-year | On July 10, the National Bureau of Statistics reported June CPI flat year-on-year |
| 2023/10/18 | Q4 GDP growth is expected at 5.1–5.4%, with full-year GDP growth around 5.2%. The 2024 growth target will also be "around 5%" | In January 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics reported Q4 2023 GDP growth of 5.2% and full-year growth of 5.2%. In March 2024, the government set the 2024 GDP growth target at "around 5%" |
| 2023/10/28 | Export growth is expected to accelerate in 2024, with better conditions than 2023 | In Jan–Feb 2024, exports grew 10.3%, accelerating significantly |
| 2024/2/22 | This year's deficit ratio is expected at 3–3.2%, with a certain scale of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds | In March 2024, the Government Work Report proposed a 3% deficit ratio and issuance of 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds |
| 2024/6/17 | Due to Q2 GDP growth slowing, authorities may prepare additional growth-stabilising measures in early-to-mid July; monetary policy may cut rates | In July, the State Council arranged 300 billion yuan in special treasury bonds to support equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins; the central bank cut rates |
| 2024/7/6 | The "Stop Biden" movement may continue to develop; Biden's withdrawal is quite possible, with Harris as the likely replacement | On July 21, Biden announced withdrawal; on July 22, Harris essentially secured the Democratic nomination |
| 2024/9/1 | Macro policy focus will shift more toward improving people's livelihoods and boosting consumption | The December 2024 Central Economic Work Conference and the March 2025 Government Work Report both set macro policy toward improving livelihoods and boosting consumption |
| 2024/9/15 | Q3 GDP growth is expected around 4.5%; additional growth-stabilising policies will be introduced | On September 26, the Politburo meeting introduced significant stimulus. On October 18, the National Bureau of Statistics reported Q3 GDP growth of 4.6% |
| 2024/10/27 | A "red wave" in the US election is rising; uncertainty looms over all markets; prudent risk control is needed | On November 4, Trump was elected president with a clear majority, and Republicans gained a majority in both houses of Congress |
| 2024/11/30 | The deficit ratio for 2025 is expected at 3.5–4% | On March 5, the Government Work Report proposed a deficit ratio of around 4% |
| 2025/1/14 | Efforts to curb "involution-style" competition will be significantly intensified, and capacity controls will be advanced across industries | Some industries are strengthening self-discipline and capacity adjustment |
| 2025/8/31 | Export rebate rates for some primary processed products and "new three" industries may be reduced | On January 9, 2026, the Ministry of Finance announced a phased reduction in export rebate rates for products such as photovoltaics and batteries |
| 2025/11/13 | The 2026 economic growth target is expected at 4.5–5% | On March 5, 2026, the Government Work Report set the 2026 target at "4.5–5% economic growth, striving for better results in practice" |
| 2025/11/19 | The 2026 deficit ratio is expected to remain around 4% | On March 5, 2026, the Government Work Report proposed a deficit ratio of around 4% for 2026 |
| 2026/1/2 | Efforts to revitalise various types of state-owned resources, assets, and funds will be comprehensively strengthened | |
| 2026/2/5 | The LDP is likely to secure a majority alone; Takaichi will push hard for constitutional revision and further strengthen a hawkish stance toward China | On February 8, the LDP secured more than a two-thirds majority alone in the parliamentary election |
| 2026/3/6 | The US–Iran conflict may last much longer than Trump initially expected and may become protracted | As of early June, the US was still bombing Iran |
| 2026/4/6 | The Politburo meeting is expected to stay the course and accelerate implementation of early-year plans | On April 28, the Politburo called for more effective and pragmatic work to consolidate the foundation of stable and improving economic growth |
| 2026/5/8 | The RMB is expected to trade on the strong side and may continue to appreciate moderately. |
(Updated June 2025)