English
FOST’s long-term goal is to become a global leading thinktank about China’s macroeconomy and economic policies.
Beijing FOST Economic Consulting Company Limited (FOST) was founded by Dr. Jianlin Feng. Jianlin has worked for the National Development and Reform Commission of China (NDRC), the most important economic policy-making organ of the State Council.
As a third-party institute devoted to China’s economic policy research, FOST is known for its insightful analysis and accurate forecast of China’s macroeconomy and policies. FOST provides services to funds, banks, insurance companies, asset managing institutes, and large enterprises both home and abroad. The Development Research Center of the State Council，PBoC，MoF，the Office of the Central Committee on Financial and Economic Affairs, and other government agencies also pay close attention to FOST reports.
FOST’s long-term goal is to become a global leading thinktank about China’s macroeconomy and economic policies.
A firm of research
FOST believes that only with insightful, original and creative research can FOST provide clients with values and lead the market.
To maintain the highest quality of the products, FOST always collects data and information from ministries and other authoritative sources directly, FOST has its own databases of macroeconomic data and economic policies.
FOST studies economic data according to the logic thinking of ministries of the State Council, analyzes and forecasts economic policies according to the viewpoints of ministries. It is proved that FOST’s forecasts and judgments are highly forward-looking and accurate. These forecasts and judgments help readers to maximize their business interests, supporting FOST to develop..
Products and Services
FOST publishes five products, monitoring and analyzing Chinese macro-economy and policies multi-dimensionally.
FOST Financial Daily, in Chinese, publishes around 8am every trading day, covering financial news and policy information with professional analysis on key events.
FOST Financial Weekly, in Chinese, recalls national and international financial news during the week, analyzes key events comprehensively.
FOST China Research, in Chinese, 3-4 issues per month, makes focused study on key issues of Chinese and international economy.
FOST Event Watch, in Chinese, 3-4 issues per month, traces hot topics such as important meetings and events.
FOST Reform Review, in Chinese, semimonthly, covers key reform policies of the central and local governments.
Meanwhile, FOST provides telephone conference, seminar, and roadshow services.
Our Forecasts
| Date | FOST forecasts | Results |
|---|---|---|
| Apr. 17,2011 | The next interest rate adjustment may be in July. | On July 7, PBoC raised interest rates |
| May 13, 2012 | PBoC should cut interest rates. Days around June 9 and July 9 are possible time windows. |
On June 8, PBoC cut interest rates. On July 6, PBoC cut interest rates again. |
| May 17, 2013 | PBoC is guiding money market interest rates to rise | Money Crunch happened during late May and middle June. |
| Mar. 23, 2014 | RMB may gradually turn to devaluation channel | Since 2014, RMB keeps depreciation |
|
Apr. 30, 2015 |
PBoC may look for a time window to cut rate | On May 11, PBoC cut interest rates by 25BP |
|
Aug. 4, 2015 |
PBoC is going to expand floating range of exchange rate | On Aug 11, exchange rate system was reformed to allow more fluctuation |
|
Sep. 21, 2015 |
PBoC may remove restriction on saving interest rate floating |
On Oct. 24, PBoC removed restriction on saving interest rate |
|
Jan. 28, 2016 |
The temporary practice of daily OMO will be fixed permanently | On Feb. 18, PBoC announced that it will make OMO daily |
|
June 15, 2016 |
UK referendum may choose to leave EU | On June 23, UK referendum chose to leave EU |
|
Dec. 11, 2016 |
China’s economy may speed up in Q1 of 2017 | GDP grew 6.9% in Q1 of 2017, the growth rate accelerated |
|
Jan. 19, 2017 |
China-U.S. trade war is inevitable, Sino-US relation will become very difficult in coming years |
Since 2018, Trump started the trade war with China |
|
July 20, 2017 |
The 19th CPC National Congress may not change the reform policy framework set by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee | The 19th National Congress of the CPC suggested to fully implement existing reform policies |
|
June 19, 2018 |
Strong exchange rate policy may change to support exports | RMB/USD dropped from 6.4 in June to 6.97 in October |
|
Sep. 20, 2018 |
PBoC may cut RRR to replace MLF in October | On Oct. 15, PBoC cut RRR to replace MLF |
|
Nov. 8, 2018 |
VAT rate may cut by 1-2 percentage points in 2019 | VAT cut 2 percentage points in 2019 |
|
Nov. 30, 2018 |
The beginning of 2019 is a good time window to cut RRR | On Jan. 4, 2019,PBoC announced to cut RRR 1 percentage point in January |
|
May 28, 2019 |
PBoC will start LPR reform to promote market-oriented pricing and application |
In August, PBoC started LPR reform |
|
Sep. 24, 2019 |
China and U.S. may reach trade agreement in two or three months | In Jan. 2020, China and U.S. signed the phase I trade agreement |
|
Feb. 28, 2020 |
The authorities are considering issuing special treasury bonds | In May 2020, the authorities announced to issue 1 trillion yuan special treasury bonds |
|
Apr. 20, 2020 |
The Politburo meeting may have lowered its economic growth target of 2020 |
In May, the report of government work did not suggest a GDP growth target |
|
Sep. 27, 2020 |
The authorities may consider extending the direct access mechanism for financial funds next year | The State Council’s executive meeting on Oct 21 suggested to expand the special transfer payment mechanism |
|
Nov. 25, 2020 |
The authorities will introduce substantive measures to regulate new business forms and digital economies soon |
The authorities started to set traffic lights for capital since late 2020 |
|
Feb. 3, 2021 |
The government work report will focus on carbon reduction | Governments launched series of carbon peak and carbon neutralization policies in 2021 |
|
Aug. 20, 2021 |
The authorities will prevent sharp decline of real estate prices |
PBoC relaxed real estate regulation policies late September, then the central and local governments continuously relaxed real estate policies |
|
Sep. 17, 2021 |
The authorities will correct the movement of carbon reduction and dual energy control policies | Late September the authorities made every effort to ensure power supply, the dual control policy of energy consumption began to loosen significantly |
|
Dec. 3, 2021 |
PBoC may introduce policies to prevent RMB from being overvalued | On Dec. 9, PBoC decided to increase the required reserve ratio for foreign exchange |
|
Feb. 17, 2022 |
The GDP target this year could be "about 5.5%" |
On Mar. 5, the government work report put forward that the GDP growth rate in 2022 is expected to be about 5.5% |
|
Mar. 25, 2022 |
The epidemic led to the economic downturn in March, and the GDP growth rate in Q1 may be about 4% |
(Up to March 31, 2022)
Attention of Ministries and Media
June 2011, Caixin Online reported FOST viewpoints on local government debt.
November 2011, Bloomberg and The Echoes interviewed FOST.
February 13, 2012, PBoC contacted FOST and asked for FOST research report on the supervision on capital and finance account.
April 28, 2012, head of the Department of Macroeconomy of the Development Research Center of the State Council visited FOST and purchased FOST report.
May 15, 2013, PBoC official invited FOST economist to attend economic policies workshop.
February 25, 2014, People.cn invited FOST to write articles about macro and policies.
Nov. 20, 2015, the Department of Treasury of MoF asked for FOST research reports.
Nov.11, 2016, media reported FOST analysis on the coming central economic work conference.
April 12, 2017, media reported FOST analysis on Xiong’an New Area.
April 15, 2018, official from Ministry of Finance visited FOST.
June 21, 2018, October 9, 2018, September 18, 2019, the Office of the Central Finance Committee invited FOST chief economist to attend their meeting on economic situation and policies.
March 17, 2020, the Monetary Policy Department of PBOC called FOST and asked for suggestions on the marketization reform of deposit interest rate.
March 31, 2020, official from the Office of the Central Finance Committee asked FOST for policy suggestions on stabilizing employment.
November 4, 2020, official from the Ministry of Finance asked FOST for policy suggestions to reduce the burden on enterprises.
April 19, 2021，official from the Office of the Central Finance Committee asked FOST about the impact of US monetary policies on the world economy and financial markets.
September 17, 2021，FOST made proposals on stabilizing economy to the Office of the Central Finance Committee.
March 17, 2022, Reuters interviewed FOST about meeting of Financial commission of the State Council.