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  FOST watches indicators of Chinese economy and Chinese economic policies closely.FOST has its own economic database and policy database.FOST analysts know very well how the State Council makes economic policy decisions.FOST is known for the accuracy of its insightful forecasts.

FOST Forecasts since 2011

Data

Forecast

Results

Mar 1, 2011

Restricts on public utility price adjustment may be relaxed in Q2

In Q2, electricity prices were raised

Apr 17, 2011

The next interest rate adjustment of PBoC may be in July or after July.

On July 7, PBoC raised interest rates

Jun 28, 2011

Debt of local government is underestimated by the report of the National Audit Office.

On Oct. 25, Premier Wen said macro-policy should be adjusted timely.

Sep 30, 2011

The State Council should be considering adjustment of the direction of macro-policy as the inflation and economic growth declines

On June 24, MoA annouces good harvest of summer grains

Nov 7, 2011

The No.1 document of the CCCPC may relate to agricultural science and technology.

On Dec. 28, the central rural work conference discussed the 1st article. The objective of the article is to promote agricultural science and technology.

Nov 24, 2011

The pressure of capital inflow decreases, which is a tendency change and will affect the monetary policy.

In Q4, Forex reserve and the position for forex purchase decreased; PBoC cut RRR on Dec. 5.

Feb 13, 2012

RMB/USD may fluctuate around 6.3 with more elasticity in the recent future.

Since April 16, the floating band of RMB/USD rate in the inter-bank spot foreign exchange market is enlarged from 0.5 percent to 1 percent.

Feb 29, 2012

Stepwise electricity price may be implemented before the summer.

On Mar. 28, NDRC said local governments may launch stepwise electricity price within H1.

Apr 20, 2012

PBoC may have to cut RRR during the middle ten days of May On May 12, PBoC announced to cut RRR by 50 BP, effectively from May 18.

May 13, 2012

PBoC should cut interest rates. Days around June 9 and July 9 are possible time windows. On June 8, PBoC cut interest rates.

Jul 1, 2012

The effect of interest rate cut was offset by the policy of allowing saving interest rates to float. To support the economy, PBoC may cut interest rates again. On July 6, PBoC cut interest rates again.
Jul 17, 2012 Metro is an important field for domestic demand expanding. It seems that the government is accelerating the development of metro system. On Sep. 5, NDRC announced that it had approved over 20 metro projects during recent months.
Aug 5, 2012 The RMB exchange rate against the USD may soon depreciate slightly, then appreciate in Q4 Since late October, the spot rate of RMB against USD often touched the upper limit
Sep 6, 2012 Fed will start a new program to buy assets, and it may keep buying assets till the economy and job market improves significantly. On Sep. 13, Fed decided to buy assets till the U.S. economy got improved significantly
Sep 27, 2012 The 18th CPC congress may promote harmonized development of industrialization, IT application, urbanization and agricultural modernization. On Nov. 8, the congress suggested to promote harmonized development of industrialization, IT application, urbanization and agricultural modernization.

Oct 18, 2012

GDP growth (YoY) of Q4 will rebound and may reach 8% On Jan. 18, 2013, NBS announced that GDP growth rate was 7.9% in Q4 2012.

Oct 24, 2012

The easing of monetary policy may stop pace The PBoC has not cut rates or RRR since then.
Oct 26, 2012 The RMB appreication expectation may extend till H1 of 2013
 

Dec 6, 2012

Fed will start QE4 and clarify the condition for policy tightening.

On Dec. 12, FOMC decided to apply QE4 and announced the unemployment rate and inflation condition for the first rate adjustment in the future.

Feb 8, 2013

House price kept rising, as may lead to regulation

On Feb. 20, the State Council launched a new round of housing market regulation

Mar 21, 2013

CPI will be stable in Q2, therefore Q2 is a good window for price reforms.

NDRC adjusted the prices of natural gas and nuclear electricity.

Apr 2, 2013

PBoC is trying to reduce interference on RMB central parity exchange rate, which may lead RMB to appreciate

RMB appreciated in April and May

May 13, 2013

Exports growth yoy of May will drop sharply and the import growth yoy may be around 0

Exports and imports grew 1% and -0.3% yoy in May respectively.

May 22, 2013

This round of RMB appreciation against USD may end in early June

RMB stopped appreciation against USD in the middle of June

   
Up to May 31, 2013

 

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