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  FOST watches indicators of Chinese economy and Chinese economic policies closely.FOST has its own economic database and policy database.FOST analysts know very well how the State Council makes economic policy decisions.FOST is known for the accuracy of its insightful forecasts.

FOST Forecasts

Date

Forecast

Results

Apr. 17,2011 The next interest rate adjustment may be in July. On July 7, PBoC raised interest rates
May 13, 2012 PBoC should cut interest rates. Days around June 9 and July 9 are possible time windows. On June 8, PBoC cut interest rates. On July 6, PBoC cut interest rates again.
Oct 18, 2012 GDP growth (YoY) of Q4 will rebound and may reach 8% GDP growth rate was 7.9% in Q4 2012.
May 17, 2013 PBoC is guiding money market interest rates to rise Money Crunch happened during late May and middle June.
Mar. 23, 2014 RMB may gradually turn to devaluation channel Since 2014, RMB keeps depreciation
Apr. 13, 2014 Macro environment is ready for RRR or interest rates cuts The State Council introduced two directional RRR cuts
Jan. 23, 2015 The possibility of RRR cut is increasing On Feb. 4, PBoC cut RRR
Apr. 30, 2015 PBoC may look for a time window to cut rate On May 11, PBoC cut interest rates by 25BP
Aug. 4, 2015 PBoC is going to expand floating range of exchange rate On Aug 11, exchange rate system was reformed to allow more fluctuation
Sep. 21, 2015 PBoC may consider to remove restriction on saving interest rate floating On Oct. 23, PBoC announced to remove restriction on saving interest rate floating since Oct. 24.
Jan. 28, 2016 The temporary practice of daily OMO will be fixed permanently On Feb. 18, PBoC announced that it will make OMO daily
Mar. 9, 2016 Fed may keep waiting, and will raise rate faster in 2017 In 2017, Fed raised the interest rate three times
June 15, 2016 UK referendum may choose to leave EU On June 23, UK referendum chose to leave EU
Oct. 21, 2016 PBoC may tolerance short-term interest rate hike Short-term interest rate kept rising in Q4 2016 and H1 2017
Dec. 11, 2016 China’s economy may speed up in Q1 of 2017 GDP grew 6.9% in Q1 of 2017, the growth rate accelerated
Jan. 12, 2017 The pressure of money outflow may relax in 2017 Cross-border capital flows were generally balanced in 2017
Jan. 19, 2017 China-U.S. trade war is inevitable, Sino-US relation will become very difficult in coming years Since 2018, Trump started the trade war with China
July 20, 2017 The 19th National Congress of the CPC may not change the reform policy framework set by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee The 19th National Congress of the CPC suggested to fully implement existing reform policies
Dec. 31, 2017 FAI of manufacturing industries may accelerate in 2018 FAI of manufacturing industries increased 9.5% in 2018
June 19, 2018 Strong exchange rate policy may change to support exports RMB/USD dropped from 6.4 in June to 6.97 in October
Sep. 20, 2018 PBoC may cut RRR to replace MLF in October On Oct. 15, PBoC cut RRR to replace MLF
Nov. 8, 2018 VAT rate may cut by 1-2 percentage points in 2019 VAT cut 2 percentage points in 2019
Nov. 30, 2018 Budget deficit rate of 2019 may be 3% Budget deficit rate was set at 2.8%
Nov. 30, 2018 The beginning of 2019 is a good time window to cut RRR On Jan. 4, 2019,PBoC announced to cut RRR 1 percentage point in January
May 28, 2019 PBoC will start LPR reform to promote market-oriented pricing and application In August, PBoC started LPR reform
Sep. 24, 2019 China and U.S. may reach trade agreement in two or three months In Jan. 2020, China and U.S. signed the phase I trade agreement
Feb. 28, 2020 The authorities are considering issuing special treasury bonds In May 2020, the authorities announced to issue 1 trillion yuan special treasury bonds
Apr. 20, 2020 The Politburo meeting may have lowered its economic growth target of 2020 In May, the report of government work did not suggest a GDP growth target
June 12, 2020 Local governments will strengthen regulation and control over the rapid rise of house prices The central and local governments kept strengthening regulation over house prices
July 12, 2020 The Politburo meeting in July will emphasize the continued implementation of the existing plans to help enterprises and promote employment The Politburo meeting on July 30 demanded continuous implementation of existing policies
Sep. 27, 2020 The authorities may consider extending the direct access mechanism for financial funds next year The State Council’s executive meeting on Oct 21 suggested to expand the special transfer payment mechanism
Oct. 29, 2020 PBoC may allow market interest rates to rise moderately  
    (Up to November 25, 2020)

 

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